The PRIMES Model
The PRIMES energy model simulates the European energy system and markets on a country-by-country basis and across Europe for the entire energy system. The model provides projections of detailed energy balances, both for demand and supply, CO2 emissions, investment in demand and supply, energy technology penetration, prices and costs. The model produces projections over the period from 2015 to 2050 in 5-years intervals. The data are based on Eurostat statistics for the years 2000-2010. The PRIMES model covers individual projections for the EU28 Member States, and and all European countries. The PRIMES model simulates a multi-market equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand and for ETS and other potential markets by explicitly calculating prices which balance demand and supply. PRIMES simulates demand and supply behaviour by agent (sector) under different assumptions regarding economic development, emission and other policy constraints, technology change and other drivers. The simulation of agents behaviour is based on microeconomic founded modelling which includes technical – engineering oriented – constraints.
The PRIMES model has served to quantify energy outlook scenarios for DG TREN and DG ENER (Trends publications since 1990), impact assessment studies for DG ENV, DG MOVE, DG CLIMA and DG ENER and others, including Energy Roadmap to 2050 (2011-2012) and Policies to 2030 (2013). PRIMES has been also used at national level for governments, companies and other institutions including for EURELECTRIC in the Power Choices strategic study.