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You are here: News EUCO scenarios
EUCO scenarios

As part of the European Commission's impact assessment work in 2016, two core policy scenarios, EUCO27 and EUCO30, were created using the PRIMES model (E3MLab) , with the EU Reference Scenario 2016 as a starting point. They model the achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets as agreed by the European Council in 2014 (the first scenario with a 27% energy efficiency target and the second with a 30% energy efficiency target).

The EUCO+ scenarios, which model the achievement of energy efficiency targets above 30% in 2030, and the EUCO3030 sensitivity analysis, which combined a 30% renewable share in 2030 with an energy efficiency target of 30%, were also prepared in 2016. They were used in the Impact Assessment accompanying the proposal for the revised Energy Efficiency Directive. 

For the Impact Assessment accompanying the proposal for revising the Renewable Energy Directive and the Impact Assessment accompanying the proposal for the revised Energy Efficiency Directive (both published in November 2016), another modelling exercise was undertaken to demonstrate the impact of the scenarios at a macro-economic level (e.g. on GDP growth and employment). It used two different models GEM-E3 (E3MLab) and E3ME (CE).

The technical reports that present the above scenarios can be found at http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling